Glossary · Evaluation & safety
Calibration
The agreement between a system's stated confidence and the observed frequency with which predictions at that confidence are correct.
Why it matters
A system can be accurate on average yet dangerously overconfident on the cases where people rely on its score.
In practice
Bucket predictions by confidence, compare confidence with empirical accuracy, and recalibrate or abstain when the gap is unacceptable.
Common confusion
Calibration measures confidence reliability, not overall accuracy, factuality, or reasoning quality.
Related terms
Sources
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